Outlook to future critical for success

168

Wouldn't you like a crystal ball?

More than 150 private research institutes across the country are peering into their own on a regular basis as they study the future. And corporations are paying big bucks for research that will help them anticipate consumer needs, values and corresponding spending habits.

There's another reason for this interest in the future. American companies that failed to anticipate human resources trends like affirmative action laws and health and safety regulations are shelling out plenty for their lack of vision.

All of us sense that change has picked up speed. The information age has arrived and it's pelting us with data so rapidly we can't possibly absorb it all.

David Zach, corporate information specialist with Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., explained the magnitude of this change during an interview: "It's estimated that there has been more change in the last 20 years than in the previous 60 years. Based on the current rate of change, it's estimated that there will be more change in the next 20 years than in the previous 1,000 years."

Let's gaze into the crystal ball of America's futurists to see how some trends may impact on you and your company:

The aging work force.
By the year 1990, 70% of the work force will be in the 25- to 54-year-old category, according to the US Bureau of Labor statistics.

The baby boomers will fact the agony of defeat in the corporate ladder-climbing competition.

Retaining these talented people will be a problem. Frustrated, stymied workers will jump off the ladder to seek other growth opportunities or start their own firms.

Zach, who has a master's degree in futures research, said: "669,000 new businesses were started in 1985. Contrast this with the fact that only 93,000 were started each year in the 1950's, and you begin to see the impact of layoffs, downsizing and corporate frustration. Company loyalty is becoming a thing of the past. One-third of these companies were started by women. It's clear this group is tired of waiting. More will follow."

At the same time, another trend may provide some solutions. Some studies show that worker values are shifting away from career climbing and managing to a desire for more personal satisfaction.
A recent University of Michigan study found that a "happy home life" was twice as important as "job satisfaction."

The February Fortune magazine features this cover story: "Executive Guilt? Who's Taking Care of the Children?" In the article, a survey shows 30% of the men and 26% of the women had refused a new job, promotion or transfer because it would have meant less family time.

"There appears to be a redefinition of success," says Zach. "The aging baby boomers are maturing, and with it comes a rise in traditional values."

Smart companies will begin to develop alternatives like day-care subsidies, flexible and part-time hours and leaves of absence to attract and retain talent. Job rotation and an entrepreneuring environment will be needed to motivate a work force that can't look forward to promotion.

Growing work-force diversity and shrinking entry-level pool.
By the year 2000, Hispanics will account for 8.9% of the population. Asians will triple to 3.4%. Women will make up well over half the work force. And one in four employees will have been raised in a one-parent household.

While the boomers will be over-educated (there will be 30 candidates for every middle-management job, an economist with the American Society of Training and Development predicts), the newcomers won't be.

The pool of functionally illiterate adults grows at the rate of 2.5 million people a year, according to Jonathan Kozol, author of "Illiterate America."

Says Zach: "The drop in the birth rate after 1965 will cause a 25% drop in the number of potential new workers in the next 10 years. There will be increased pressure to automate lower-level tasks, and there will be more opportunity for minorities and women. There will be an increase in the use of immigrant labor. Companies will need to play bigger roles in training and educating these workers."

Growth of technology.
"The robotics industry today is where the auto industry was in 1910," according to Ron Zemke's excellent article, "Training in the 90s" (Training magazine, Jan. '87). He states: "Production workers increasingly will become automation technicians who will need a broad range of trouble-shooting ability and cross training."

"John Naisbitt (author of "Mega trends") claims that automation is having more impact on white-collar jobs than blue-collar," says Zach. "Blue-collar jobs tend to have fewer tasks; therefore, it's easier to see the automation. In white-collar jobs, it's creeping in on little cats' feet - insidiously. It doesn't replace people but it can outdate them. There's a need for innovative ways to train and develop users of this technology in all sectors."

In summary, it's wise to look forward, but a sense of perspective can be gained by looking back.